On August 10 the Copernicus Climate Change Service updated its outlook for the September-November 2026 quarter: the signal is clear, above-average temperatures across most of Europe, Italy included.
Between late September and early October a high-pressure structure is forming between the Mediterranean and North Africa, what meteorologists call a heat dome, pushing toward the heart of the continent. The starting point does not help. The Mediterranean closed its hottest July since 1993, with an average sea surface temperature of about 27°C.
The summer quarter had already left its mark. Between June and early September Italy went through six heatwaves, the last one between September 3 and 7, with departures from seasonal averages of 6-8°C in several locations, according to data reported by Meteo.it. The Copernicus update says the following quarter brings no clean break.
Francesco Meneguzzo, commissioner at Consorzio Lamma-Cnr, describes an autumn warmer than average for Italy. Rainfall remains uncertain, and the same caution applies to how long the warm phase will last.
Then there is El Niño. On August 13 NOAA and CPC assigned a probability above 90% to reaching very strong intensity between autumn and winter 2026-2027. Meneguzzo still warns against oversimplifying: the links between El Niño and European climate remain indirect and intermittent, not a direct equation.
For office workers, the shoulder season no longer marks the clean boundary it once did. Long sleeves go back in the wardrobe, but the thermometer does not always follow: a morning under 15°C and an afternoon still above 25°C, on the same day, have already happened more than once this year.
Anyone moving between air-conditioned spaces and the street several times a day measures the problem in practical terms, not aesthetic ones. The layer under the jacket has to handle the morning swing and the mid-afternoon heat without a change of outfit halfway through the day.
This is not a classic Indian summer, the kind that lasts a few days and has been a known exception for decades. Here the signal covers the whole season: above-average temperatures for three months, not an isolated ripple between two cooler fronts.
On this specific point there is a measurable body of research: the active thermoregulation of natural fibers, meaning how a fabric absorbs and releases heat and moisture as the conditions around it change within the same day.
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